The Forecasted Future of the Aggressor State as a Complex Social System and the Impact of Its Continued Existence on the State of Crime in Ukraine

Abstract

Based on the application of a systemic approach, an attempt has been made to forecast the future of the russian federation. The systemic approach is characterised as a general scientific methodology of cognition. A number of systemic requirements (parameters) have been identified that any system, in particular a social system, must meet: systemic-elementary, systemic-structural, systemic-resource, systemic-integration, systemic-communication, and systemic-historical. The content of each of these systemic requirements has been clarified.

Arguments are presented in favour of recognising modern russia as a complex social system with the characteristics of an empire. Using the example of russia as a complex social system, its compliance with systemic requirements is revealed. Assumptions are made about the future of the russian federation, consistent with the results of several studies by international and domestic analytical centres and individual experts. Particular emphasis is placed on the systemic-historical requirement of a systemic approach. On this basis, a retrospective analysis is carried out to substantiate the thesis about the historical determinism of the russian state's predisposition to aggression towards other countries and its manifestation towards its own people. The centuries-old orientation of russia towards the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, as well as the national, linguistic and cultural identity and uniqueness of the Ukrainian people, is substantiated. Rashism is defined as a contemporary russian ideology that combines elements of fascism and nazism. Arguments are presented in favour of the assertion that the state of criminal illegality, as well as the trends in the spread and patterns of crime in Ukraine, depend on the duration of the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is noted that the nature of crime in Ukraine is also influenced by the very fact of the continued existence of the russian state as an integral and stable social system.